Manchester United’s victory over Everton has sent shockwaves through the race for the Top Four, with Opta’s supercomputer now delivering a fresh prediction for the final Premier League standings.
While Michael Carrick has steered the Reds back into fourth place on the actual table, the data analysts suggest a photo-finish is on the horizon. With the UEFA coefficient battle also in play, even a fifth-place finish might be enough to secure Champions League football for 2026/27.
The Predicted Top 6 (Final Standings)
| Position | Club | Predicted Points | UCL Probability |
| 1st | Arsenal | 82 pts | 100% |
| 2nd | Man City | 76 pts | 99.55% |
| 3rd | Aston Villa | 70 pts | High |
| 4th | Liverpool | 65 pts | 47.1% |
| 5th | Man Utd | 64 pts | 44.15% |
| 6th | Chelsea | 61 pts | Low |
The Battle for the 5th Spot: Why United Fans Shouldn’t Panic
Although the supercomputer narrowly places Liverpool (65 points) above Manchester United (64 points), the “fifth-place curse” might not exist this year.
Thanks to the dominant performances of English clubs in Europe this season, England is currently sitting at the summit of the UEFA Coefficient rankings. If this holds, the Premier League will be awarded an extra Champions League spot, meaning 5th place would act as a golden ticket to the elite competition.
Key Takeaways from the Data:
- Arsenal’s Dominance: The Gunners are now heavy favorites to clinch the title with an 82-point tally.
- The Margin of Error: Only 0.18 points separate United and Liverpool in the statistical model, meaning a single goal or draw could flip the entire prediction.
- The “Tottenham Factor”: With Spurs already qualified via their Europa League triumph, the dynamic of the European spots has become even more competitive.
Can Carrick defy the data and secure a podium finish, or will the depth of the Liverpool squad prevail in the final weeks?
Thiago Nuno is a football editor and analyst covering European leagues, match statistics, and transfer market trends.
